Let's stop Putin from switching Ukraine off
FURTHER READING :
Having failed to achieve the swift military victory it had hoped for in Ukraine, Russia has been relentlessly assailing the civilian population for over two years, targeting energy infrastructure in particular in the hope of breaking down its resistance. This deliberate strategy of terror has intensified since March 2024, taking advantage of the shortage of resources weakening Kyiv's anti-aircraft defences.
On August 26 alone, 35 devices (out of a total of 236) hit their targets, including the distribution substations of the three nuclear power plants still under Ukrainian control, which provided around three-quarters of the country's remaining output. This resulted in massive power cuts across the country, including in the capital, which had already experienced blackouts lasting 12 to 15 hours a day this summer. Serial failures at these power plants threaten to have a fatal impact on the whole of Europe.
They are already undermining life in the cities, which, even more than the countryside, depend on a regular supply of electricity. In large buildings plunged into cold and darkness, each household lives in isolation, with no elevator to bring up groceries or refrigerator to store them, and no running water or district heating because the pumps have stopped working. When water does return, it may be contaminated, as the treatment plants have also stopped working. Without electricity, there is no longer any Internet (on which many children depend for their long-distance schooling) or mobile telephony, as local antennae cannot be powered.
The entire social and economic fabric is affected, including food, health, communications, government and business activity. Power cuts compromise food production and distribution by shutting down ovens or breaking the cold chain. In hospitals, operating theatres and intensive care units (neonatal, intensive care) are generally equipped with emergency generators, but this is rarely the case for radiology, ultrasound and dialysis departments. In administrations and businesses, the breakdown of transmitter and relay systems blocks IT services, preventing access to databases, administrative procedures and banking transactions. Whether in the service sector or industry, power outages bring economic activity to a halt, ultimately leading to bankruptcy.
Protecting energy facilities
The destruction of electricity infrastructure is the key to the Kremlin's plan: to make Ukraine unlivable, to push its population to despair, its government to surrender. We must stand up against this programmed nightmare. First and foremost, Ukraine must finally be allowed to strike Russian launch sites with the weapons we are delivering. Better to aim at the archer than the arrow.
The country could also be protected by neighbouring and allied states, as we argued in an appeal to close Ukrainian skies to Russian missiles and drones on 14 May 2024. The destruction by Polish or Romanian air defence and aviation of missiles approaching the EU's borders would constitute an act of self-defence, justifying a change of doctrine within the Alliance. Similarly, the Alliance would be justified in reacting when these vectors and their payloads target networks linked to Ukrainian nuclear power stations, endangering their cooling, as happened on 26 August. Such attacks exacerbate the threat posed to the whole continent by the Russian army's occupation of the Zaporizhia power station, even when it is shut down.
Above all, we need to help Ukraine provide its own air defence. The peak winter consumption (18 GW) could be supplied by ten sites, each requiring a Patriot system or its Franco-Italian equivalent SAMP/T Mamba, whereas the Ukrainian army has a total of only six or seven. Sending a few extra systems from Ukraine's allies would make all the difference in getting through the winter. Let France do its part!
Increasing both the electricity supply to Ukraine and the Ukrainian energy production capacity
Other emergency measures are needed. The first is to increase the supply of electricity from the EU. Ukraine can currently import up to 1.7 GW from Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, Romania and Moldova. Negotiations are underway to raise this ceiling to 2.4 GW. Here again, France, which can export up to 8.8 GW on an annual average, has a key role to play in the European effort.
In the short term, Ukraine needs cogeneration plants and medium to high-power generators (up to 12 MW), totalling 1.33 GW, around 80% of which have already been delivered or ordered. The missing 256 MW, or 2,551 generators, would cost around €50 million. Kyiv is also calling for emergency material aid to repair bombed sites in real time. Some of these measures could be financed by the Ukraine Fund set up by France on 7 June, but also by the proceeds of frozen Russian public assets, which the European Commission has finally decided to seize.
Without denying the efforts made by France to date, it is urgent that, after five months of silence on this war, parliament and the government make a resolute commitment to protecting, restoring or supplementing Ukraine's energy potential. The survival of Ukrainian society, its freedoms and our own are at stake. Ukraine is a beacon of light for European democracy. Vladimir Putin wants to turn it off. Will we let him?
Signataires :
Guillaume Ancel, former officer and defence columnist
Gilles Chevalier, Comptroller General of the Armed Forces (2S)
Jacques Duplessy, Ukraine Project Manager, SAFE Association
François Grünewald, engineer, crisis management specialist, founder of Groupe URD
Sergueï Jirnov, Expert in international relations and intelligence, author, political refugee
André Klarsfeld, Vice-chair of For Ukraine, for their Freedom and Ours !
Jonathan Littell, Writer
Alexandre Melnik, Professor of geopolitics
Ariane Mnouchkine, Theatre Director
Sylvie Rollet, Emerita Professor of universities, Chairwoman of the Pour l’Ukraine, pour leur liberté et la nôtre !
Xavier Tytelman, defence consultant
Emmanuel Wallon, Emeritus Professor of universities
SIGNATURES FROM THE CIVIL SOCIETY (list updated to 5th November 2024)